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The risk of a global trade war is present.

Experts say that in the new context, Vietnam needs to improve its foreign relations, diversify its import-export markets, and strictly control the phenomenon of "disguised goods" for export.

Concerns about the possibility of a global trade war arose after US President Donald Trump announced decrees imposing tariffs on a number of countries.

However, Mr. Phan Le Thanh Long - CEO of AFA Group - commented that these are not urgent national issues that prompted President Donald Trump to decide to impose tariffs. The viewpoint that President Donald Trump has always pursued is "Make America great again". This happened during his first presidential term.

Mr. Nguyen Minh Tuan - CEO of AFA Capital, founder of Topi - said that tariffs are considered a negotiating tool between the US and other countries under President Donald Trump. In 2017, during President Donald Trump's official visit to China, businesses from both countries signed many trade and investment cooperation agreements worth more than 250 billion USD.

A TRADE WAR IS DIFFICULT FOR ONE COUNTRY, BUT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR OTHERS TO GET AHEAD

In December 2024, Mr. Michael Kokalari, CFA - Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Market Research, Vinacapital Investment Fund - assessed that the risks for Vietnam have been exaggerated.

Accordingly, the election of President Donald Trump has created excessive pessimism about the potential impact of his policies on Vietnam from some international articles. In fact, Vietnam is unlikely to be a target.

This expert said that President Donald Trump's main goal is to bring manufacturing jobs to the US and narrow the US trade deficit. Regarding the trade deficit, after the election, Vietnam announced a plan to reduce its trade surplus by buying LNG and aircraft from the US. Energy industry experts said that Vietnam could start importing about $30 billion of LNG per year from the US through the use of floating storage and regasification units.

In addition, wages in the US are too high and the supply of skilled workers is too low to produce products cost-effectively. A US manufacturing executive once shared on Bloomberg that "tool manufacturing is a lost art. It will take a long time for us to rebuild that skill level (in the US)". Therefore, Mr. Michael Kokalari said that bringing back production of products such as shoes, bicycles, garments, consumer electronics, etc. is not simple.

According to a study by Harvard University, only about 2% of Vietnam's exports to the US are transit goods from China. Therefore, the US government's concerns about the transit of "Made in China" products through Vietnam will be much lower than Mexico.

Sharing with Dan Tri, Dr. Cao Viet Sinh, former Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment, affirmed that in every danger there is opportunity. "The trade war is difficult for this country, but for other countries it is an opportunity to overcome. So we don't need to worry too much about that problem," he said.

The problem is that Vietnam must proactively research, proactively change direction, and proactively build a plan to respond. For example, for products with high taxes, we can switch to other countries. Expert Cao Viet Sinh emphasized Vietnam's proactive response solution.

The second solution proposed by Mr. Sinh is that the economy should not only rely on exports but also promote domestic consumption. Promoting production growth is not only aimed at export but also needs to increase domestic consumption.

Experts believe that when the real estate market develops, products such as iron and steel will increase domestic consumption. In addition, in the coming time, the Government will implement many large projects such as highways and urban railways, the domestic consumption of these products will increase sharply, reducing dependence on the export market.

Therefore, according to Mr. Sinh, in danger there is always opportunity and the important thing is how Vietnam takes advantage of the opportunity.

RESPONSE IN THE NEW CONTEXT

Mr. Nguyen Minh Tuan commented that when protectionism tends to return, it will negatively affect global economic growth.

Accordingly, international organizations forecast that the world's GDP in 2025 could decrease by 0.5% due to supply chain disruptions and the reactions of countries. US GDP may decrease by 0.3-0.4% due to increased production costs, disruptions to the North American supply chain, and high inflation limiting consumption. Canada's GDP is also forecast to decrease by 2-3%, Mexico by 1.3-3.5%, and China by 0.1-0.3%.

Vietnam currently has the third largest trade surplus with the US, after China and Mexico. During the Trump 1.0 period, Vietnam was not subject to tariffs, so it received capital and goods from China.

Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong said that Vietnam's exports this year may face relatively large challenges due to the US's protectionist and tax policies towards its trade partners. The Ministry's leaders requested ministries, branches, localities, associations and businesses to grasp the situation and carefully analyze the difficulties of world trade to proactively face the challenges. The Ministry of Planning and Investment also reported to Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on the growth drivers from exports.

In the situation where Vietnam is in the group subject to tariffs, expert Phan Le Thanh Long assessed that high-tech products (computers, electronic products and components, machinery and equipment) are at higher risk of being taxed than labor-intensive products (textiles, footwear, wood).

Experts from AFA Group proposed 5 solutions that Vietnam needs to implement in the new context facing the risk of a trade war.

The first is to upgrade relations. Currently, Vietnam and the US have signed a strategic partnership.

Second is currency management. The State Bank needs to proactively explain and regulate to avoid being accused by the US of currency manipulation.

Third is diversifying export markets. Vietnam's two main export markets are the US (more than 100 billion USD), the second is Europe. Vietnam has the advantage of being one of the countries participating in the most free trade agreements (FTAs) in the world. Therefore, Vietnam needs to take advantage of FTAs ​​to expand its market and reduce dependence on the US. Suggested potential markets include Japan and Australia.

At the micro level, businesses also need to proactively research trade agreements, proactively learn to reduce risks and take advantage of opportunities.

Fourth is the policy of controlling goods disguised as Vietnamese. Accordingly, Vietnam needs to take measures to prevent the import of goods from China and then label them "Made in Vietnam" for export to the US.

Fifth, strengthen foreign relations. To balance the trade balance, Vietnam needs to increase the import of machinery and high technology from the US.

Source: dantri.com.vn